The Dubas Draft Doctrine: Predicting Pittsburgh's Picks in 2026
Kyle Dubas is a GM who fascinates me. His draft strategy is like a puzzle—intricate, consistent, and yet, occasionally, delightfully unpredictable. As we approach the 2026 NHL Draft, I find myself wondering: what can we learn from Dubas’s past moves, and more importantly, what does it tell us about the future?
One thing that immediately stands out is Dubas’s love for forwards, particularly early in the draft. Out of his first and second-round picks, a staggering 70% have been forwards, with a clear bias toward wingers. Personally, I think this speaks to his belief in building a dynamic, offensively potent roster. But what’s truly fascinating is his positional flexibility—players like Ben Kindel and Will Horcoff are center-capable, giving the Penguins versatility that’s rare in today’s NHL.
What many people don’t realize is that Dubas’s regional preferences are just as telling. Historically, he’s been a WHL loyalist, with four out of six top-50 picks coming from Western Canada. However, in 2025, he surprised everyone by drafting Bill Zonnon from the QMJHL and Will Horcoff from the NCAA. This raises a deeper question: is Dubas adapting to the shifting talent landscape, where more top prospects are opting for the NCAA route? Or was this a one-off?
From my perspective, Dubas’s willingness to break his own mold is a positive sign. It shows he’s not rigidly tied to a single strategy, which is crucial in a league where adaptability is key. That said, his avoidance of Swedish and QMJHL players (outside of Zonnon) remains a curious trend. Is it a matter of preference, or is there something about those leagues that doesn’t align with his vision?
Another detail that I find especially interesting is Dubas’s approach to goalies. He’s never drafted one in the first three rounds, and in 2025, Gabriel D’Aigle became his highest-ever goalie pick at 84th overall. This suggests Dubas either undervalues goalies in the draft or prefers to acquire them through other means. What this really suggests is that he’s betting on free agency or trades to fill the netminder role, which is a risky but potentially rewarding strategy.
Dubas’s affinity for right-handed defensemen is another pattern worth noting. Nearly 23% of his draft picks have been RHD, and in 2025, he added three more to the Penguins’ system. If you take a step back and think about it, this makes sense—right-shot defenders are in high demand, and Dubas is clearly prioritizing long-term defensive depth.
But here’s where it gets really intriguing: Dubas’s recent shift away from European players. After drafting heavily from Russia and Finland earlier in his career, the Penguins’ 2024 and 2025 drafts were almost entirely North American-focused. Is this a strategic pivot, or merely a coincidence? Personally, I think it’s a combination of both—Dubas is leaning into the CHL pipeline while also acknowledging the NCAA’s growing influence.
What makes this particularly fascinating is Dubas’s tendency to trade down. He’s done it repeatedly, accumulating more picks rather than chasing a single high-value prospect. This strategy aligns with his focus on depth, but it also reflects a broader philosophy: he’s playing the long game, betting on quantity over quality in the hopes of uncovering hidden gems.
As we look ahead to 2026, I’m curious to see if Dubas will stick to his playbook. Will he continue to prioritize forwards and right-shot defensemen? Will he finally dip into the European talent pool again? Or will he surprise us all with a bold, unconventional move?
In my opinion, Dubas’s greatest strength is his ability to balance consistency with flexibility. He has a clear vision, but he’s not afraid to adapt when the situation demands it. And that, more than anything, is what makes him one of the most intriguing GMs in the NHL today.
So, as the draft approaches, here’s my prediction: expect Dubas to trade down, stockpile picks, and focus on Canadian junior players. But don’t be shocked if he throws in a curveball—because with Dubas, you never quite know what’s coming next. And that’s what makes it so exciting.
